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Bangladesh will be among the countries that are projected to be hit hard by heat stress, which will damage productivity and cause job and economic losses, according to a new report from International Labour Organization (ILO).
Bangladesh may lose 4.84 percent of the total working hours due to heat stress resulting from global warming in 2030, up from 4.24 percent in 1995, it said.
The loss is equivalent to 22.74 lakh full-time jobs in 1995 and 38.33 lakh full-time jobs in 2030, an increase of nearly 70 percent during the period.
The ILO launched the new report on “Working on a warmer planet: The impact of heat stress on labour productivity and decent work” on Monday.
In terms of working hour loss, Bangladesh will be only ahead of India and Pakistan in South Asia. In 2030, India will lose 5.8 percent of the working hours and Pakistan 5.54 percent.
“The countries most vulnerable to productivity losses are those with a high share of agricultural and/or construction employment and those that are located within the tropical and subtropical latitudes, such as Cambodia, Thailand, Vietnam, India, Bangladesh and Pakistan,” the report said.
In Bangladesh, more than 40 percent workers are involved in the agriculture sector, 14.43 percent in the manufacturing sector and 5.58 percent in the construction sector, according to Bangladesh Economic Review 2019.
Heat stress refers to heat in excess of what the body can tolerate without suffering physiological impairment. It generally occurs at temperatures above 35°C, in high humidity.
In Bangladesh, the temperatures went past 35°C regularly between April and June this year. Excess heat during work is an occupational health risk; it restricts workers’ physical functions and capabilities, work capacity and thus, productivity. In extreme cases it can lead to heatstroke, which can be fatal.
The report said an increase in heat stress resulting from global warming is projected to lead to global productivity losses equivalent to 80 million full-time jobs in the year 2030.
Projections based on a global temperature rise of 1.5°C by the end of this century suggest that in 2030, 2.2 percent of total working hours worldwide will be lost because of higher temperatures, a loss equivalent to 80 million full-time jobs. This is equivalent to global economic losses of $2,400 billion.
The report cautions this is a conservative estimate because it assumes that the global mean temperature rise will not exceed 1.5°C. It also assumes that work in agriculture and construction – two of the sectors worst affected by heat stress – are carried out in the shade.
The sector expected to be worst affected, globally, is agriculture. It is projected to account for 60 percent of global working hours lost due to heat stress by 2030. The construction sector will also be severely impacted with an estimated 19 percent of global working hours lost by the same date.
Other sectors especially at risk are environmental goods and services, refuse collection, emergency, repair work, transport, tourism, sports and some forms of industrial work. Bangladesh’s working hour loss in agriculture, construction, manufacturing and services sector will widen between 1995 and 2030 significantly.
The report said it will be people in the poorest regions who will suffer the most significant economic losses. Lower-middle- and low-income countries are expected to suffer the worst, particularly as they have fewer resources to adapt effectively to increased heat.
The economic losses of heat stress will therefore reinforce already existing economic disadvantages, in particular the higher rates of working poverty, informal and vulnerable employment, subsistence agriculture, and a lack of social protection.
“The impact of heat stress on labour productivity is a serious consequence of climate change, which adds to other adverse impacts such as changing rain patterns, rising sea levels and loss of biodiversity,” said Catherine Saget, chief of unit in the ILO’s research department and one of the main authors of the report, in a statement.
“In addition to the massive economic costs of heat stress, we can expect to see more inequality between low and high income countries and worsening working conditions for the most vulnerable, as well as displacement of people.”
“To adapt to this new reality appropriate measures by governments, employers and workers, focusing on protecting the most vulnerable, are urgently needed.”
The report calls for greater efforts to design, finance and implement national policies to address heat stress risks and protect workers. These include adequate infrastructure and improved early warning systems for heat events, and improved implementation of international labour standards such as in the area of occupational safety and health to help design policies to tackle heat-related hazards.
Interestingly, among the ten countries most affected in the region, Cambodia, Bangladesh and Myanmar are projected to lose smaller shares of their GDP to heat stress in 2030 compared with 1995, even though temperatures are expected to rise in these countries as well.
These shares will decrease from 8.6 to 6.5 percent of GDP in Cambodia, from 5.8 to 4.9 percent in Bangladesh, and from 3.6 to 3 percent in Myanmar.
This trend can be largely ascribed to the ongoing structural transformation in these countries, with a large number of workers transitioning out of agriculture into the service sector.
Workers in the service sector are less likely to be exposed to heat stress because of the lower physical effort required and also because their work is mostly carried out indoors.
In Bangladesh, the share of manufacturing in total employment rose from 10 percent in 1999–2000 to 16 percent in 2013, the ILO report said.
For the agriculture sector, it fell from 48.85 percent in 1995-96 to 40.62 percent in 2016-17, Bangladesh Economic Review showed.
source (TDS)
