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A majority of economists expect a US
recession in the next two years, but have pushed back the onset amid Federal
Reserve actions, according to a survey released Monday.
The National Association for Business Economists found far fewer experts
now think the next recession will start this year compared to a survey in
February.
NABE conducted its policy poll as President Donald Trump put the Fed under
constant attack, demanding more stimulus, but before the central bank cut the
benchmark lending rate on July 31.
However, the Fed was already sending strong signals that it intended to
pull back on the rate increases made in 2018 due to concerns starting to dog
the economic outlook, including the trade war with China.
“Survey respondents indicate that the expansion will be extended by the
shift in monetary policy,” said NABE President Constance Hunter, who is chief
economist at KPMG.
Only two percent of the 226 respondents now see a recession this year,
compared to 10 percent in February’s survey, NABE said.
However, “the panel is split regarding whether the downturn will hit in
2020 or 2021, Hunter said in a summary of the survey, which showed 38 percent
expect a contraction of growth next year, while 34 percent don’t see it until
the following year.
More economists shifted their recession prediction to 2021, narrowing the
gap from the prior report, which had many more expecting the change next
year.
The results show 46 percent expect at least one more rate cut this year
from the Fed, while about a third see policy holding where it is now, with
2.25 percent as the top end of the policy range.
Economists are skeptical about a resolution to Trump’s trade wars,
although 64 percent said a “superficial agreement is possible,” NABE said.
But that was before Trump announced another round of tariffs of 10 percent
on the remaining $300 billion in goods not yet hit by US punitive duties. The
new measures will take effect in two stages, on September 1 and December 15.
As Trump continues his vocal campaign criticizing the Fed, the NABE survey
found economists are concerned about the impact: 55 percent said his remarks
do not influence Fed decisions but do “compromise the public’s trust in the
central bank.”
And over a quarter of respondents said the criticism will “cause the Fed
to be more dovish than otherwise, thus threatening its independence.”
The survey also asked about fiscal policy, and a majority of economists
said Trump’s tax cuts “had an overall negative impact on housing activity
over the past 18 months,” due to changes in deductions allowed for mortgage
interest.
(BSS)
