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Businesses other than drugs and essentials are bearing the brunt of panic over the pandemic.
Tourism, transport, eateries, consumer goods are the hardest-hit by Covid-19 caused by novel coronavirus, according to business leaders and analysts.
They said the country needs budgetary restructuring to offset the losses from the pandemic.
They are now assessing how much loss the businesses would incur and how much fiscal measures need to be taken.
During visits to several markets and city streets on Friday, this correspondent found the customers’ presence far from remarkable.
Besides, hawkers and vendors on the streets saw their sales fall sharply as fewer people moved out.
Talking to the Financial Express, shop owners expressed concern over the impacts of slumping sales as it will hit the domestic economy hard, adversely affecting the economic growth.
Most of the shops in the super markets were closed on Friday.
Shrinking consumer spending has raised macroeconomic concerns such as the fall in production of consumer goods, which in turn may raise unemployment.
The Federation of Bangladesh Chambers of Commerce and Industry is conducting an assessment across the country how much losses businesses could incur and what type of fiscal measures are required to overcome those.
FBCCI poresident Sheikh Fazle Fahim said the apex chamber body with the help of its members in 64 districts is carrying out an assessment to learn what they require to run normal trading.
The FBCCI will also assess what fiscal measures the service and manufacturing sectors would require to tackle the fallout of Covid-19.
“We started the assessment process five days back and it will take two weeks,” he said.
“We’re taking inputs from all businesses in 64 districts and we will let you know our assessment,” he said.
According to an Asian Development Bank (ADB) analysis, Bangladesh’s gross domestic product may contract by as much as 1.1 per cent in the hypothetical worst-case scenario in case of a significant outbreak of coronavirus in the country.
That means, the novel virus, which reached Bangladesh’s shores two weeks ago, could wipe $3.02 billion out the $300 billion-plus economy.
In such a scenario, 894,930 jobs will be lost, according to the ADB.
“There are many uncertainties about the Covid-19, including its economic impact,” ADB chief economist Yasuyuki Sawada said in a statement earlier in the month.
This requires the use of multiple scenarios to provide a clearer picture of potential losses.
The ADB analysis explored three scenarios given the large uncertainties.
In the best case scenario, the country’s GDP will lose $8.37 million and there will also be job cuts for 1,870 people. In the moderate and worse cases, there will be GDP loss of $15.84 million and $30.31 million and job cuts of 3,790 and 6,950 respectively.
In Bangladesh, tourism revenues will decline by 0.001 per cent in the best-case scenario, 0.002 per cent in the moderate case scenario and 0.003 per cent in the worst-case scenario.
Analysts fear the pandemic will sting the country’s foreign trade, tourism and migration sectors.
Centre for Policy Dialogue distinguished fellow Professor Mustafizur Rahman said it is difficult to give a quantitative assessment now as it is at the primary stage.
“We really don’t know how long epidemic will last in Bangladesh, we can only say what we should do now,” he said.
Prof Rahman said export, import, remittance, tourism and domestic activities will be hit hard.
He said domestic production is dependent on export, production is dependent on employment, so everything is connected.
He said the country may need to spend more on health emergency, which will require budgetary reallocation and reprioritisation.
He also said the epidemic will affect the budgetary measure in the upcoming budget.
(FE)
